Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions.

Journal article

Link, D. and Raab, Markus (2021). Experts use base rates in real-world sequential decisions. Psychonomic bulletin & review. https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-021-02024-6
AuthorsLink, D. and Raab, Markus
AbstractHuman behavior is often assumed to be irrational, full of errors, and affected by cognitive biases. One of these biases is base-rate neglect, which happens when the base rates of a specific category are not considered when making decisions. We argue here that while naïve subjects demonstrate base-rate neglect in laboratory conditions, experts tested in the real world do use base rates. Our explanation is that lab studies use single questions, whereas, in the real world, most decisions are sequential in nature, leading to a more realistic test of base-rate use. One decision that lends itself to testing base-rate use in real life occurs in beach volleyball-specifically, deciding to whom to serve to win the game. Analyzing the sequential choices in expert athletes in more than 1,300 games revealed that they were sensitive to base rates and adapted their decision strategies to the performance of the opponent. Our data describes a threshold at which players change their strategy and use base rates. We conclude that the debate over whether decision makers use base rates should be shifted to real-world tests, and the focus should be on when and how base rates are used. [Abstract copyright: © 2021. The Author(s).]
KeywordsSport; Choice; Hot hand; Base rate
Year2021
JournalPsychonomic bulletin & review
PublisherSpringer
ISSN1531-5320
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.3758/s13423-021-02024-6
Publication dates
Print26 Sep 2021
Online26 Oct 2021
Publication process dates
Deposited28 Oct 2021
Accepted29 Sep 2021
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Open
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Ewolds, H, Broeker, L, de Oliveira, RF, Raab, M and Künzell, S (2017). Implicit and explicit knowledge both improve dual task performance in a continuous pursuit tracking task. Frontiers in Psychology. 8, pp. 1-11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2017.02241
From confidence crises and action norms to self-reflection and individual actions
Raab, M, Hoffmann, S, Laborde, S and Lobinger, B (2017). From confidence crises and action norms to self-reflection and individual actions. Zeitschrift fur Sportpsychologie. 24 (3), pp. 111-119. https://doi.org/10.1026/1612-5010/a000199
Individual differences in athletes' perception of expressive body movements
Sevdalis, V and Raab, M (2016). Individual differences in athletes' perception of expressive body movements. Psychology of Sport and Exercise. 24, pp. 111 - 117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.psychsport.2016.02.001
A Lifespan Perspective on Embodied Cognition
Raab, M, Loeffler, J and Cañal-Bruland, R (2016). A Lifespan Perspective on Embodied Cognition. Frontiers in Psychology. 1 (June), pp. 1 - 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2016.00845
How Effective Is a Video Review System in Soccer?
Pizzera, A, Marrable, J and Raab, M (2016). How Effective Is a Video Review System in Soccer? 6th International Teaching Games for Understanding Conference (TGfU). Cologne, Germany 25 - 27 Jul 2016 Taylor & Francis. https://doi.org/10.1080/02701367.2016.1213610
Attentional distraction by negative sports words in athletes under low- and high-pressure conditions: Evidence from the sport emotional stroop task
Lautenbach, F, Putman, P, Angelidis, A, Laborde, S and Raab, M (2016). Attentional distraction by negative sports words in athletes under low- and high-pressure conditions: Evidence from the sport emotional stroop task. Sport, Exercise, and Performance Psychology. 5 (4), pp. 296 - 307. https://doi.org/10.1037/spy0000073
Auditory reafferences: The influence of real-time feedback on movement control
Kennel, C, Streese, L, Pizzera, A, Justen, C, Hohmann, T and Raab, M (2015). Auditory reafferences: The influence of real-time feedback on movement control. Frontiers in Psychology. 6 (JAN), pp. 69-. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.00069
How should "hot" players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness.
Csapo, P, Avugos, S, Raab, M and Bar-Eli, M (2015). How should "hot" players in basketball be defended? The use of fast-and-frugal heuristics by basketball coaches and players in response to streakiness. Journal of Sports Sciences. 33 (15), pp. 1580-1588. https://doi.org/10.1080/02640414.2014.999251
The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science.
Raab, M and Gigerenzer, G (2015). The power of simplicity: a fast-and-frugal heuristics approach to performance science. Frontiers in Psychology. 6, pp. 1672-1678. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2015.01672
"Hand down, man down." Analysis of defensive adjustments in response to the hot hand in basketball using novel defense metrics
Csapo, P and Raab, M (2014). "Hand down, man down." Analysis of defensive adjustments in response to the hot hand in basketball using novel defense metrics. PLoS ONE. 9 (12), pp. e114184-e114184. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0114184
An adaptive toolbox approach to the route to expertise in sport.
de Oliveira, RF, Lobinger, B and Raab, M (2014). An adaptive toolbox approach to the route to expertise in sport. Frontiers in Psychology. 5, p. 709. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2014.00709
Reinvestment - The cause of the yips?
Klämpfl, MK, Lobinger, BH and Raab, M (2013). Reinvestment - The cause of the yips? PLoS ONE. 8 (12), pp. e82470-e82470. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0082470