A theory of misperception in a stochastic dominance framework and its application to structured financial products

Journal article

Castellano, R. and Cerqueti, R. (2016). A theory of misperception in a stochastic dominance framework and its application to structured financial products. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 29 (1), pp. 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpw007
AuthorsCastellano, R. and Cerqueti, R.
Abstract

We study the mechanism of misperception that leads retail investors to investment choices which are not the most profitable. This mechanism is studied in a stochastic dominance framework from a theoretical perspective and supported by an extensive numerical analysis. Our theoretical contribution is the introduction of a specific definition of stochastic dominance that captures the effects of an asymmetric trend-type misperception. Such a novel conceptualization is consistent with the perspective here adopted, i.e. the misperception is driven by a positive trend affecting the entire set of possible realizations. The financial relevance of the theoretical proposal is highlighted through the paradigmatic case of structured financial products. To this end, we perform a pairwise numerical comparison between investment products to get insights about the inversion of the order of stochastic dominance, leading investors to prefer the less profitable instruments. The critical trend, the value where preferences are reversed, is interpreted as a measure of investors’ misperception and compared with different levels of the volatility. Some behavioural finance-type arguments provide insights on the interpretation of the obtained results.

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in IMA Journal of Management Mathematics following peer review. The version of record A theory of misperception in a stochastic dominance framework and its application to structured financial products is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpw007

Year2016
JournalIMA Journal of Management Mathematics
Journal citation29 (1), pp. 23-37
PublisherOxford University Press (OUP)
ISSN1471-678X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpw007
Publication dates
Online03 Jul 2016
Publication process dates
Accepted21 May 2016
Deposited28 Feb 2020
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Cerqueti, R., Falbo, P., Guastaroba, G. and Pelizzari, C. (2015). Approximating multivariate Markov chains for bootstrapping through contiguous partitions. OR Spectrum. 37 (3), pp. 803-841. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00291-015-0397-8
Socio-economical analysis of Italy: The case of hagiotoponym cities
Cerqueti, R. and Ausloos, M. (2015). Socio-economical analysis of Italy: The case of hagiotoponym cities. The Social Science Journal. 52 (4), pp. 561-564. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.soscij.2015.03.004
Cross ranking of cities and regions: population versus income
Cerqueti, R. and Ausloos, M. (2015). Cross ranking of cities and regions: population versus income. Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment. 2015 (7), pp. P07002-P07002. https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-5468/2015/07/p07002
A disutility-based drift control for exchange rates
Castellano, R, Cerqueti, R and D'Ecclesia, R. L (2014). A disutility-based drift control for exchange rates. Optimization. 63 (2), pp. 255-269. https://doi.org/10.1080/02331934.2011.641016
A quantitative view on policymakers’ goal, institutions and tax evasion
Bovi, M and Cerqueti, R (2014). A quantitative view on policymakers’ goal, institutions and tax evasion. Quality & Quantity. 48 (3), pp. 1493-1510. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-013-9849-x
Mean–Variance portfolio selection in presence of infrequently traded stocks
Castellano, R and Cerqueti, R (2014). Mean–Variance portfolio selection in presence of infrequently traded stocks. European Journal of Operational Research. 234 (2), pp. 442-449. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2013.04.024
Exhaustion of resources: a marked temporal process framework
Cerqueti, R (2014). Exhaustion of resources: a marked temporal process framework. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment. 28 (4), pp. 1023-1033. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0798-7
Symmetries of systems with spatially bounded domains
Cerqueti, R and Sarnari, F (2014). Symmetries of systems with spatially bounded domains. Journal of Advanced Research in Dynamical and Control Systems. 6 (1), pp. 11-25.
Benford’s law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions
Mir, T. A, Ausloos, M and Cerqueti, R (2014). Benford’s law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions. The European Physical Journal B. 87 (11). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjb/e2014-50525-2
New results on the convergence of random matrices
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2013). New results on the convergence of random matrices. Statistics. 47 (4), pp. 663-671. https://doi.org/10.1080/02331888.2011.648639
Roots and effects of financial misperception in a stochastic dominance framework
Castellano, R and Cerqueti, R (2013). Roots and effects of financial misperception in a stochastic dominance framework. Quality & Quantity. 47 (6), pp. 3371-3389. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-012-9726-z
Extension of dependence properties to semi-copulas and applications to the mean–variance model
Cerqueti, R and Spizzichino, F (2013). Extension of dependence properties to semi-copulas and applications to the mean–variance model. Fuzzy Sets and Systems. 220, pp. 99-108. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fss.2012.08.011
A Tabu Search heuristic procedure in Markov chain bootstrapping
Cerqueti, R, Falbo, P, Guastaroba, G and Pelizzari, C (2013). A Tabu Search heuristic procedure in Markov chain bootstrapping. European Journal of Operational Research. 227 (2), pp. 367-384. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2012.11.009
Economic interactions and social tolerance: A dynamic perspective
Cerqueti, R, Correani, L and Garofalo, G (2013). Economic interactions and social tolerance: A dynamic perspective. Economics Letters. 120 (3), pp. 458-463. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2013.05.032
Illegal finance and usurers behaviour
Barone, R, Cerqueti, R and Quaranta, A. G. (2012). Illegal finance and usurers behaviour. European Journal of Law and Economics. 34 (2), pp. 265-277. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10657-010-9183-x
The perspective of a bank in granting credits: an optimization model
Cerqueti, R and Quaranta, A. G (2012). The perspective of a bank in granting credits: an optimization model. Optimization Letters. 6 (5), pp. 867-882. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11590-011-0310-6
Financing policies via stochastic control: a dynamic programming approach
Cerqueti, R (2012). Financing policies via stochastic control: a dynamic programming approach. Journal of Global Optimization. 53 (3), pp. 539-561. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10898-011-9725-y
The role of diversity in persistence aggregation
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2012). The role of diversity in persistence aggregation. International Journal of Intelligent Systems. 27 (2), pp. 176-187. https://doi.org/10.1002/int.21519
Corruption, growth and ethnic fractionalization: a theoretical model
Cerqueti, R, Coppier, R and Piga, G (2012). Corruption, growth and ethnic fractionalization: a theoretical model. Journal of Economics. 106 (2), pp. 153-181. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00712-011-0253-5
Optimal consumption/investment problem with light stocks: A mixed continuous-discrete time approach
Castellano, R and Cerqueti, R (2012). Optimal consumption/investment problem with light stocks: A mixed continuous-discrete time approach. Applied Mathematics and Computation. 218 (12), pp. 6887-6898. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2011.12.065
Why is the Tax Evasion so Persistent?
Cerqueti, R and Bovi, M (2011). Why is the Tax Evasion so Persistent? in: Tavidze, A (ed.) Progress in Economics Nova Science Publishers, Inc..
The optimal bid/ask spread in a Specialist System
Castellano, R and Cerqueti, R (2011). The optimal bid/ask spread in a Specialist System. Economic Modelling. 28 (5), pp. 2247-2253. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.06.019
Economic growth, corruption and tax evasion
Cerqueti, R and Coppier, R (2011). Economic growth, corruption and tax evasion. Economic Modelling. 28 (1-2), pp. 489-500. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.07.006
Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2011). Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels. Journal of Banking & Finance. 35 (10), pp. 2598-2605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.02.011
Memory Property in Heterogeneously Populated Markets
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2010). Memory Property in Heterogeneously Populated Markets. in: Greco, S, Marques Pereira, RA, Squillante, M, Yager, RR and Kacprzyk, J (ed.) Preferences and Decisions - Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing Berlin Springer Verlag. pp. 53-69
Firms clustering in presence of technological renewal processes
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2010). Firms clustering in presence of technological renewal processes. in: Puu, T and Panchuk, A (ed.) Nonlinear economic dynamics Nova Science Publishers, Inc..
Light Stocks and Wealth Allocation
Cerqueti, R and Castellano, R (2010). Light Stocks and Wealth Allocation. in: Kasımbeyli, R, Dinçer, C, Özpeynirci, S and Sakalauskas, L (ed.) 24th mini euro conference on continuous optimization and information based technologies in the financial sector - MEC EUROPT 2010: selected papers Vilnius "Technika".
Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2010). Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods. 39 (14), pp. 2552-2560. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610920903061021
Options with underlying asset driven by a fractional brownian motion: crossing barriers estimates
Rotundo, G and Cerqueti, R (2010). Options with underlying asset driven by a fractional brownian motion: crossing barriers estimates. New Mathematics and Natural Computation. 06 (01), pp. 109-118. https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793005710001633
A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs
Brianzoni, S, Cerqueti, R and Michetti, E (2010). A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs. Computational Economics. 35 (2), pp. 165-188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-009-9189-z
A Characterization of the Dickey-Fuller Distribution With Some Extensions to the Multivariate Case
Cerqueti, R, Costantini, M and Lupi, C (2009). A Characterization of the Dickey-Fuller Distribution With Some Extensions to the Multivariate Case. in: Martinez, WL (ed.) Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting (Business and Economic Statistics Section), 1-6 August 2009, Washington DC, USA American Statistical Association.
Dynamic Programming via Measurable Selection
Cerqueti, R (2009). Dynamic Programming via Measurable Selection. Pacific Journal of Optimization. 5 (1), pp. 169-181.
Tax revenues, fiscal corruption and “shame” costs
Cerqueti, R and Coppier, R (2009). Tax revenues, fiscal corruption and “shame” costs. Economic Modelling. 26 (6), pp. 1239-1244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.06.005
A spatial mixed Poisson framework for combination of excess-of-loss and proportional reinsurance contracts
Cerqueti, R, Foschi, R and Spizzichino, F (2009). A spatial mixed Poisson framework for combination of excess-of-loss and proportional reinsurance contracts. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 45 (1), pp. 59-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2009.03.001
Companies' decisions for profit maximization: a structural model
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G. (2009). Companies' decisions for profit maximization: a structural model. Applied Mathematical Sciences. 3 (27), pp. 1327-1340.
Asymptotic solutions of a generalized eigenvalue problem
Cerqueti, R. and Costantini, M. (2009). Asymptotic solutions of a generalized eigenvalue problem. Applied Mathematical Sciences. 3 (60), pp. 2985-2999.
On the asymptotic behaviour of random matrices in a multivariate statistical model
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2008). On the asymptotic behaviour of random matrices in a multivariate statistical model. Statistics & Probability Letters. 78 (14), pp. 2039-2045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2008.01.051
Dynamics of financial time series in an inhomogeneous framework
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2007). Dynamics of financial time series in an inhomogeneous framework. in: Sibillo, M and Perna, C (ed.) Mathematical and statistical methods in insurance and finance Berlin Springer Verlag. pp. 67-74
Productivity and costs for firms in presence of technology renewal processes
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2007). Productivity and costs for firms in presence of technology renewal processes. International Transactions in Operational Research. 14 (6), pp. 521-534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2007.00611.x
Microeconomic modeling of financial time series with long term memory
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2003). Microeconomic modeling of financial time series with long term memory. 2003 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering. Proceedings. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/cifer.2003.1196260