Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model

Journal article

Cerqueti, R and Ventura, M (2015). Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 26 (1), pp. 39-62. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020
AuthorsCerqueti, R and Ventura, M
Abstract

This article develops a novel probabilistic approach to evaluate, through an approximation, a patent-protected R&D project at a fixed date under very general conditions. In a real options framework, we introduce spatial mixed Poisson processes to describe the dynamics of the project value. In such a fashion, the model is able to account for competition among firms and several sources of uncertainty such as time-to-completion of the project, exogenous shocks, input cost uncertainty, technical uncertainty and asymmetric information under different cost structures. The proposed evaluation procedure is of Bayesian type, in that it moves from a specific a-priori information on the phenomenon under scrutiny.

This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in IMA Journal of Management Mathematics following peer review. The version of record Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020

Year2015
JournalIMA Journal of Management Mathematics
Journal citation26 (1), pp. 39-62
PublisherOxford University Press (OUP)
ISSN1471-678X
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020
Web address (URL)https://academic.oup.com/imaman/article-abstract/26/1/39/811914?redirectedFrom=fulltext
Publication dates
Print01 Jan 2015
Online01 Dec 2013
Publication process dates
Accepted22 Aug 2013
Deposited06 Mar 2020
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Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2011). Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels. Journal of Banking & Finance. 35 (10), pp. 2598-2605. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2011.02.011
Memory Property in Heterogeneously Populated Markets
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2010). Memory Property in Heterogeneously Populated Markets. in: Greco, S, Marques Pereira, RA, Squillante, M, Yager, RR and Kacprzyk, J (ed.) Preferences and Decisions - Studies in Fuzziness and Soft Computing Berlin Springer Verlag. pp. 53-69
Light Stocks and Wealth Allocation
Cerqueti, R and Castellano, R (2010). Light Stocks and Wealth Allocation. in: Kasımbeyli, R, Dinçer, C, Özpeynirci, S and Sakalauskas, L (ed.) 24th mini euro conference on continuous optimization and information based technologies in the financial sector - MEC EUROPT 2010: selected papers Vilnius "Technika".
Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2010). Some Nonparametric Asymptotic Results for a Class of Stochastic Processes. Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods. 39 (14), pp. 2552-2560. https://doi.org/10.1080/03610920903061021
Options with underlying asset driven by a fractional brownian motion: crossing barriers estimates
Rotundo, G and Cerqueti, R (2010). Options with underlying asset driven by a fractional brownian motion: crossing barriers estimates. New Mathematics and Natural Computation. 06 (01), pp. 109-118. https://doi.org/10.1142/s1793005710001633
A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs
Brianzoni, S, Cerqueti, R and Michetti, E (2010). A Dynamic Stochastic Model of Asset Pricing with Heterogeneous Beliefs. Computational Economics. 35 (2), pp. 165-188. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-009-9189-z
A Characterization of the Dickey-Fuller Distribution With Some Extensions to the Multivariate Case
Cerqueti, R, Costantini, M and Lupi, C (2009). A Characterization of the Dickey-Fuller Distribution With Some Extensions to the Multivariate Case. in: Martinez, WL (ed.) Proceedings of the Joint Statistical Meeting (Business and Economic Statistics Section), 1-6 August 2009, Washington DC, USA American Statistical Association.
Dynamic Programming via Measurable Selection
Cerqueti, R (2009). Dynamic Programming via Measurable Selection. Pacific Journal of Optimization. 5 (1), pp. 169-181.
Tax revenues, fiscal corruption and “shame” costs
Cerqueti, R and Coppier, R (2009). Tax revenues, fiscal corruption and “shame” costs. Economic Modelling. 26 (6), pp. 1239-1244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2009.06.005
A spatial mixed Poisson framework for combination of excess-of-loss and proportional reinsurance contracts
Cerqueti, R, Foschi, R and Spizzichino, F (2009). A spatial mixed Poisson framework for combination of excess-of-loss and proportional reinsurance contracts. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics. 45 (1), pp. 59-64. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.insmatheco.2009.03.001
Companies' decisions for profit maximization: a structural model
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G. (2009). Companies' decisions for profit maximization: a structural model. Applied Mathematical Sciences. 3 (27), pp. 1327-1340.
Asymptotic solutions of a generalized eigenvalue problem
Cerqueti, R. and Costantini, M. (2009). Asymptotic solutions of a generalized eigenvalue problem. Applied Mathematical Sciences. 3 (60), pp. 2985-2999.
On the asymptotic behaviour of random matrices in a multivariate statistical model
Cerqueti, R and Costantini, M (2008). On the asymptotic behaviour of random matrices in a multivariate statistical model. Statistics & Probability Letters. 78 (14), pp. 2039-2045. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.spl.2008.01.051
Dynamics of financial time series in an inhomogeneous framework
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2007). Dynamics of financial time series in an inhomogeneous framework. in: Sibillo, M and Perna, C (ed.) Mathematical and statistical methods in insurance and finance Berlin Springer Verlag. pp. 67-74
Productivity and costs for firms in presence of technology renewal processes
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2007). Productivity and costs for firms in presence of technology renewal processes. International Transactions in Operational Research. 14 (6), pp. 521-534. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-3995.2007.00611.x
Microeconomic modeling of financial time series with long term memory
Cerqueti, R and Rotundo, G (2003). Microeconomic modeling of financial time series with long term memory. 2003 IEEE International Conference on Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering. Proceedings. IEEE. https://doi.org/10.1109/cifer.2003.1196260