Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model
Journal article
Cerqueti, R and Ventura, M (2015). Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model. IMA Journal of Management Mathematics. 26 (1), pp. 39-62. https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020
Authors | Cerqueti, R and Ventura, M |
---|---|
Abstract | This article develops a novel probabilistic approach to evaluate, through an approximation, a patent-protected R&D project at a fixed date under very general conditions. In a real options framework, we introduce spatial mixed Poisson processes to describe the dynamics of the project value. In such a fashion, the model is able to account for competition among firms and several sources of uncertainty such as time-to-completion of the project, exogenous shocks, input cost uncertainty, technical uncertainty and asymmetric information under different cost structures. The proposed evaluation procedure is of Bayesian type, in that it moves from a specific a-priori information on the phenomenon under scrutiny. This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in IMA Journal of Management Mathematics following peer review. The version of record Risk and uncertainty in the patent race: a probabilistic model is available online at: https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020 |
Year | 2015 |
Journal | IMA Journal of Management Mathematics |
Journal citation | 26 (1), pp. 39-62 |
Publisher | Oxford University Press (OUP) |
ISSN | 1471-678X |
Digital Object Identifier (DOI) | https://doi.org/10.1093/imaman/dpt020 |
Web address (URL) | https://academic.oup.com/imaman/article-abstract/26/1/39/811914?redirectedFrom=fulltext |
Publication dates | |
01 Jan 2015 | |
Online | 01 Dec 2013 |
Publication process dates | |
Accepted | 22 Aug 2013 |
Deposited | 06 Mar 2020 |
Accepted author manuscript | License File Access Level Open |
https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/89373
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License: CC BY 4.0 | ||
File access level: Open |
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