Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets

Conference paper

Ghavami, M and Shams Dilmaghani, R (2017). Equity Risk Premiums and Risk Free Rates in Modelling and Prediction of Financial Markets. International Conference on Mathematical Finance, Statistics and Economics. Vienna, Austria 21 - 22 Jun 2017
AuthorsGhavami, M and Shams Dilmaghani, R
TypeConference paper
Abstract

This paper proposes a novel adaptive framework for modelling financial markets using equity risk premiums, risk free rates and volatilities. The recorded economic factors are initially used to train four adaptive filters for a certain limited period of time in the past. Once the systems are trained, the adjusted coefficients are used for modelling and prediction of an important financial market index. Two different approaches based on least mean squares (LMS) and recursive least squares (RLS) algorithms are investigated. Performance analysis of each method in terms of the mean squared error (MSE) is presented and the results are discussed. Computer simulations carried out using recorded data show MSEs of 4% and 3.4% for the next month prediction using LMS and RLS adaptive algorithms, respectively. In terms of twelve months prediction RLS method shows a better tendency estimation compared to the LMS algorithm.

KeywordsPrediction of Financial Markets, Adaptive methods, MSE, LSE.
Year2017
Accepted author manuscript
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Open
Publication dates
Print21 Jun 2017
Publication process dates
Deposited08 May 2017
Accepted19 Apr 2017
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A new approach for event detection using k-means clustering and neural networks.
Oladimeji, MO, Turkey, M, Ghavami, M and Dudley, S (2015). A new approach for event detection using k-means clustering and neural networks. 2015 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN). Killarney Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). pp. 1 - 5 https://doi.org/10.1109/IJCNN.2015.7280752
Occupancy based household energy disaggregation using ultra wideband radar and electrical signature profiles
Brown, R., Ghavami, N., Siddiqui, H., Adjrad, M., Ghavami, M. and Dudley-Mcevoy, S. (2017). Occupancy based household energy disaggregation using ultra wideband radar and electrical signature profiles. Energy and Buildings. 141, pp. 134-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enbuild.2017.02.004
A Spatially Processed 3D Wideband Adaptive Conical Array System
Ghavami, M (2017). A Spatially Processed 3D Wideband Adaptive Conical Array System. IEEE International Conference on Ubiquitous Wireless Broadband ICUWB’2017. Salamanca, Spain 12 - 15 Sep 2017 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
UWB Localization Employing Supervised Learning Method
Rana, S., Dey, M., Siddiqui, H., Tiberi, G., Ghavami, M. and Dudley, S (2017). UWB Localization Employing Supervised Learning Method. IEEE International Conference on Ubiquitous Wireless Broadband 2017. Salamanca, Spain 12 - 15 Sep 2017 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). https://doi.org/10.1109/ICUWB.2017.8250971
UWB power propagation for bio-medical implanted devices
Ghafari, M, Brennan, P and Ghavami, M (2015). UWB power propagation for bio-medical implanted devices. 17th International Conference on E-health Networking, Application & Services (HealthCom). Boston, MA, USA 14 - 17 Oct 2015 London South Bank University. pp. 483 - 487 https://doi.org/10.1109/HealthCom.2015.7454551
Huygens Principle based UWB Microwave Imaging Method for Skin Cancer Detection
Ghavami, N, Tiberi, G, Ghavami, M, Dudley, S and Lane, ME (2016). Huygens Principle based UWB Microwave Imaging Method for Skin Cancer Detection. 10th IEEE/IET International Symposium on Communication Systems, Networks and Digital Signal Processing. Prague, Czech Republic 20 - 22 Jul 2016 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE).
Improving time–frequency domain sleep EEG classification via singular spectrum analysis
Mahvash Mohammadi, S., Kouchaki, S., Ghavami, M. and Sanei, S. (2016). Improving time–frequency domain sleep EEG classification via singular spectrum analysis. Journal of Neuroscience Methods. 273, pp. 96-106. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jneumeth.2016.08.008
A semantic-enhanced trajectory visual analytics for digital forensic
Liao, Z.-F., Li, Y., Peng, Y., Zhao, Y., Zhou, F.-F., Liao, Z.-N., Dudley, S. and Ghavami, M. (2015). A semantic-enhanced trajectory visual analytics for digital forensic. Journal of Visualization. 18 (2), pp. 173 - 184. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12650-015-0276-z
Classification of awake, REM, and NREM from EEG via singular spectrum analysis
Mohammadi, SM, Enshaeifar, S, Ghavami, M and Sanei, S (2015). Classification of awake, REM, and NREM from EEG via singular spectrum analysis. International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. Milan, Italy 25 - 29 Aug 2015 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). https://doi.org/10.1109/EMBC.2015.7319460
Automatic trust calculation for service-oriented systems
Ye, B., Nekovee, M., Pervez, A. and Ghavami, M. (2014). Automatic trust calculation for service-oriented systems. IET Software. 8 (3), pp. 134 - 142. https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-sen.2013.0056
Ultra-wideband-based multilateration technique for indoor localisation
Onalaja, O., Adjrad, M. and Ghavami, M. (2014). Ultra-wideband-based multilateration technique for indoor localisation. IET COMMUNICATIONS. 8 (10), pp. 1800 - 1809. https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-com.2013.0815
Study of human being detection in an indoor environment using ultra wideband radar
Hassan Khausru, MA and Ghavami, M (2014). Study of human being detection in an indoor environment using ultra wideband radar. IEEE International Conference on Ultra-Wideband 2014. Paris, France Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). pp. 113 - 118 https://doi.org/10.1109/ICUWB.2014.6958961
Signal Detection Performance of Overlapped FFT Scheme with Additional Frames Consisting of Non-continuous Samples in Indoor Environment
Uchida, S., Sato, A., Inamori, M., Sanada, Y. and Ghavami, M. (2014). Signal Detection Performance of Overlapped FFT Scheme with Additional Frames Consisting of Non-continuous Samples in Indoor Environment. Wireless Personal Communications. 79 (2), pp. 987 - 1002. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11277-014-1899-4
A user-centric system architecture for residential energy consumption reduction
Vastardis, N, Adjrad, M, Buchanan, K, Liao, Z, Koch, C, Russo, R, Yang, K, Ghavami, M, Anderson, B and Dudley, S (2014). A user-centric system architecture for residential energy consumption reduction. IEEE Online Conference on Green Communications. Online 12 - 14 Nov 2014 Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE). pp. 1-7 https://doi.org/10.1109/OnlineGreenCom.2014.7114423