The influence of Lent on marriages and conceptions explored through a new methodology

Journal article

Herteliu, C., Richmond, P. and Roehner, B.M. (2019). The influence of Lent on marriages and conceptions explored through a new methodology. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 532, pp. 121768-121768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121768
AuthorsHerteliu, C., Richmond, P. and Roehner, B.M.
Abstract

What is the influence of religion on the actual behavior of people? The present paper introduces a methodology which permits a quantitative assessment. [1] have elsewhere analyzed the impact of Lent (prior to Easter) and Advent (prior to Christmas) on births in Romania. Here we broaden the analysis (i) by studying the effect of Lent on marriages as well as births (ii) by analyzing a number of other countries which allows a comparison with non-Orthodox countries. We also introduce a new methodology (that we call the “overlap probe”) which treats the data in a way that avoids any bias related to seasonal patterns.

The comparison between the effects on marriages and conceptions appears of particular interest for it permits to assess the respective weights of social pressure on one hand and personal behavior on the other hand. Our analysis reveals a strong effect of Lent on marriages with a reduction by 80% in Eastern Orthodox countries and 40% in West European Catholic and Protestant countries. Since the influence of Lent on conceptions is independent of any form of direct social control one expects this effect to be much smaller. This is born out by our results which show that the birth effect is about 10 times smaller than the marriage effect.

The overlap methodology is so accurate that it allows us to determine the average length of pregnancy (from intercourse to birth) with a precision of 2 or 3 days.

This methodology is also used to investigate the impact of the month of Ramadan on birth and suicide rates.

Year2019
JournalPhysica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Journal citation532, pp. 121768-121768
PublisherElsevier BV
ISSN0378-4371
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121768
Publication dates
Print15 Oct 2019
Online19 Jun 2019
Publication process dates
Accepted28 Apr 2019
Deposited17 Feb 2020
Accepted author manuscript
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Open
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Anemia prevalence in women of reproductive age in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2018
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Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study
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Zastrozhina, A., Zewdie, D.T., Zhang, Y., Zhang, Z.-J., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I. and Dwyer-Lindgren, L. (2021). Subnational mapping of HIV incidence and mortality among individuals aged 15–49 years in sub-Saharan Africa, 2000–18: a modelling study. The Lancet HIV. 8 (6), pp. e363-e375. https://doi.org/10.1016/s2352-3018(21)00051-5
Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018
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(2021). Mapping inequalities in exclusive breastfeeding in low- and middle-income countries, 2000–2018. Nature Human Behaviour. 5, pp. 1027-1045. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-021-01108-6
Testing Benford’s Laws (non)conformity within disclosed companies’ financial statements among hospitality industry in Romania
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Mapping subnational HIV mortality in six Latin American countries with incomplete vital registration systems
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Global, regional, and national progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 for neonatal and child health: all-cause and cause-specific mortality findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Paulson, K.R., Kamath, A.M., Alam, T., Bienhoff, K., Abady, G.G., Abbas, J., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abd-Elsalam, S.M., Abdoli, A., Abedi, A., Abolhassani, H., Abreu, L.G., Abu-Gharbieh, E., Abu-Rmeileh, N.M., Abushouk, A.I., Adamu, A.L., Adebayo, O.M., Adegbosin, A.E., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Adeyinka, D.A., Adsuar, J.C., Afshari, K., Aghaali, M., Agudelo-Botero, M., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, K., Ahmed, M.B., Aji, B., Akalu, Y., Akinyemi, O.O., Aklilu, A., Al-Aly, Z., Alam, K., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Al-Eyadhy, A., Ali, T., Alicandro, G., Alif, S.M., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Almasri, N.A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Alonso, J., Al-Raddadi, R.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Alumran, A.K., Alvis-Guzman, N., Alvis-Zakzuk, N.J., Ameyaw, E.K., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Anderlini, D., Andrei, C.L., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Antonio, C.A.T., 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Cahuana-Hurtado, L., Camargos, P., Cámera, L.A., Cárdenas, R., Carreras, G., Carrero, J.J., Carvalho, F., Castaldelli-Maia, J.M., Castañeda-Orjuela, C.A., Castelpietra, G., Cerin, E., Chang, J.-C., Chanie, W.F., Charan, J., Chatterjee, S., Chattu, S.K., Chattu, V.K., Chaturvedi, S., Chen, S., Cho, D.Y., Choi, J.-Y.J., Chu, D.-T., Ciobanu, L.G., Cirillo, M., Conde, J., Costa, V.M., Couto, R.A.S., Dachew, B.A., Dahlawi, S.M.A., Dai, H., Dai, X., Dandona, L., Dandona, R., Daneshpajouhnejad, P., Darmstadt, G.L., Das, J.K., Dávila-Cervantes, C.A., Davis, A.C., Davletov, K., De la Hoz, F.P., De Leo, D., Deeba, F., Denova-Gutiérrez, E., Dervenis, N., Desalew, A., Deuba, K., Dey, S., Dharmaratne, S.D., Dhingra, S., Dhungana, G.P., Dias da Silva, D., Diaz, D., Dorostkar, F., Doshmangir, L., Dubljanin, E., Duraes, A.R., Eagan, A.W., Edinur, H.A., Efendi, F., Eftekharzadeh, S., El Sayed, I., El Tantawi, M., Elbarazi, I., Elgendy, I.Y., El-Jaafary, S.I., Emami, A., Enany, S., Eyawo, O., Ezzikouri, 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F.S., Vlassov, V., Vo, B., Vu, G.T., Wado, Y.D., Waheed, Y., Wamai, R.G., Wang, Y., Wang, Y., Wang, Y.-P., Ward, P., Werdecker, A., Westerman, R., Wickramasinghe, N.D., Wilner, L.B., Wiysonge, C.S., Wu, A.-M., Wu, C., Xie, Y., Yahyazadeh Jabbari, S.H., Yamagishi, K., Yandrapalli, S., Yaya, S., Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V., Yip, P., Yonemoto, N., Yoon, S.-J., Younis, M.Z., Yousefi, Z., Yousefinezhadi, T., Yu, C., Yusuf, S.S., Zaidi, S.S., Zaman, S.B., Zamani, M., Zamanian, M., Zastrozhin, M.S., Zastrozhina, A., Zhang, Y., Zhang, Z.-J., Zhao, X.-J.G., Ziapour, A., Hay, S.I., Murray, C.J.L., Wang, H. and Kassebaum, N.J. 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Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries
Sbarra, A.N., Rolfe, S., Nguyen, J.Q., Earl, L., Galles, N.C., Marks, A., Abbas, K.M., Abbasi-Kangevari, M., Abbastabar, H., Abd-Allah, F., Abdelalim, A., Abdollahi, M., Abegaz, K.H., Abiy, H.A.A., Abolhassani, H., Abreu, L.G., Abrigo, M.R.M., Abushouk, A.I., Accrombessi, M.M.K., Adabi, M., Adebayo, O.M., Adekanmbi, V., Adetokunboh, O.O., Adham, D., Afarideh, M., Aghaali, M., Ahmad, T., Ahmadi, R., Ahmadi, K., Ahmed, M.B., Alanezi, F.M., Alanzi, T.M., Alcalde-Rabanal, J.E., Alemnew, B.T., Ali, B.A., Ali, M., Alijanzadeh, M., Alinia, C., Alipoor, R., Alipour, V., Alizade, H., Aljunid, S.M., Almasi, A., Almasi-Hashiani, A., Al-Mekhlafi, H.M., Altirkawi, K.A., Amare, B., Amini, S., Amini-Rarani, M., Amiri, F., Amit, A.M.L., Amugsi, D.A., Ancuceanu, R., Andrei, C.L., Anjomshoa, M., Ansari, F., Ansari-Moghaddam, A., Ansha, M.G., Antonio, C.A.T., Antriyandarti, E., Anvari, D., Arabloo, J., Arab-Zozani, M., Aremu, O., Armoon, B., Aryal, K.K., Arzani, A., Asadi-Aliabadi, M., Asgari, S., 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Mapping geographical inequalities in oral rehydration therapy coverage in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17
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Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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Measuring universal health coverage based on an index of effective coverage of health services in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
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The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis
Deshpande, A, Miller-Petrie, MK, Johnson, KB, Abdoli, A, Abrigo, MRM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adinarayanan, S, Ahmadpour, E, Ahmed, MB, Akalu, TY, Alanzi, TM, Alinia, C, Alipour, V, Amit, AML, Anber, NH, Ancuceanu, R, Andualem, Z, Ansari, F, Antonio, CAT, Anvari, D, Appiah, S, Arabloo, J, Arnold, BF, Ausloos, M, Ayanore, MA, Badirzadeh, A, Baig, AA, Banach, M, Baraki, AG, Bärnighausen, TW, Bayati, M, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Bockarie, MJ, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, RK, Bohlouli, S, Cano, J, Carvalho, F, Chattu, VK, Chavshin, C, Cormier, NM, Cromwell, EA, Schmidt, CA, Kwong, KT, Damiani, G, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Darwesh, AM, Daryani, A, Dash, AP, Deribe, K, Dessu, B, Dhimal, M, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Do, HT, Earl, L, El Tantawi, M, Faraj, A, Fattahi, N, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Foigt, NA, Foroutan, M, Guo, Y, Hailu, GB, Hasaballah, AI, Hassankhani, H, Hassankhani, H, Herteliu, C, de Hidru, HD, Hon, J, Hole, MK, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Househ, M, Humayun, A, Ilesanmi, OS, Ilic, MD, Iqbal, U, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jha, RP, Ji, JS, Jozwiak, JJ, Kabir, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Karami Matin, B, Karch, A, Karimi, S, Kasaeian, A, Kazemi Karyani, A, Kayode, GA, Kelbore, AG, Khafaie, MA and Khalilov, R (2020). The global distribution of lymphatic filariasis, 2000–18: a geospatial analysis. The Lancet Global Health. 8 (9), pp. e1186-e1194. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(20)30286-2
Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990–2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Gańczak, M, Miazgowski, T, Kożybska, M, Kotwas, A, Korzeń, M, Rudnicki, B, Nogal, T, Andrei, C L, Ausloos, M, Banach, M, Brazinova, A, Constantin, M, Dubljanin, E, Herteliu, C, Hostiuc, M, Hostiuc, S, Jakovljevic, M, Jozwiak, J J, Kissimova-Skarbek, K, Król, Z J, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Milevska Kostova, N, Naghavi, M, Negoi, I, Negoi, R I, Pana, A, Rubino, S, Sekerija, M, Sierpinski, R, Szponar, L, Topor-Madry, R, Vujcic, I S, Widecka, J, Widecka, K, Wojtyniak, B, Zadnik, V and Kopec, J A (2020). Changes in disease burden in Poland between 1990–2017 in comparison with other Central European countries: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. PLoS ONE. 15 (3), pp. e0226766-e0226766. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0226766
Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017
Kinyoki, D.K., Ross, J.M., Lazzar-Atwood, A. and Herteliu, C. (2020). Mapping local patterns of childhood overweight and wasting in low- and middle-income countries between 2000 and 2017. Nature Medicine. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41591-020-0807-6
Health sector spending and spending on HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria, and development assistance for health: progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3
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Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Bikbov, B, Purcell, CA, Levey, AS, Smith, M, Abdoli, A, Abebe, M, Adebayo, OM, Afarideh, M, Agarwal, SK, Agudelo-Botero, M, Ahmadian, E, Al-Aly, Z, Alipour, V, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Raddadi, RM, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amini, S, Andrei, T, Andrei, CL, Andualem, Z, Anjomshoa, M, Arabloo, J, Ashagre, AF, Asmelash, D, Ataro, Z, Atout, MMDW, Ayanore, MA, Badawi, A, Bakhtiari, A, Ballew, SH, Balouchi, A, Banach, M, Barquera, S, Basu, S, Bayih, MT, Bedi, N, Bello, AK, Bensenor, IM, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Borzì, AM, Cámera, LA, Carrero, JJ, Carvalho, F, Castro, F, Catalá-López, F, Chang, AR, Chin, KL, Chung, SC, Cirillo, M, Cousin, E, Dandona, L, Dandona, R, Daryani, A, Das Gupta, R, Demeke, FM, Demoz, GT, Desta, DM, Do, HP, Duncan, BB, Eftekhari, A, Esteghamati, A, Fatima, SS, Fernandes, JC, Fernandes, E, Fischer, F, Freitas, M, Gad, MM, Gebremeskel, GG, Gebresillassie, BM, Geta, B, Ghafourifard, M, Ghajar, A, Ghith, N, Gill, PS, Ginawi, IA, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Haj-Mirzaian, A, Hariyani, N, Hasan, M, Hasankhani, M, Hasanzadeh, A, Hassen, HY, Hay, SI, Heidari, B, Herteliu, C, Hoang, CL, Hosseini, M, Hostiuc, M, Irvani, SSN, Islam, SMS, Jafari Balalami, N, James, SL, Jassal, SK, Jha, V, Jonas, JB, Joukar, F and Jozwiak, JJ (2020). Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The Lancet. 395 (10225), pp. 709-733. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30045-3
Liquidity transmission and the subprime mortgage crisis: a multivariate GARCH approach
Xiao, L., Dhesi, G., Ceptureanu, E.G., Lin, K., Herteliu, C., Syed, B. and Ceptureanu, S.I. (2020). Liquidity transmission and the subprime mortgage crisis: a multivariate GARCH approach. Soft Computing. 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-020-04772-4
Sustainable consumption behaviours in P2P accommodation platforms: an exploratory study
Ceptureanu, E.G., Ceptureanu, S., Herteliu, C. and Cerqueti, R. (2020). Sustainable consumption behaviours in P2P accommodation platforms: an exploratory study. Soft Computing. pp. 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-020-04681-6
Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries
Kinyoki, D., Osgood-Zimmerman, A., Pickering, B., Schaeffler, L., Ausloos, M., Herteliu, C., Kassenbaum, N. and Hay, S. (2020). Mapping child growth failure across low- and middle-income countries. Nature. 577 (7789), pp. 231-234. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1878-8
Mapping disparities in education across low- and middle-income countries
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Intriguing behavior when testing the impact of quotation marks usage in Google search results
Ileanu, B.V., Ausloos, M., Herteliu, C. and Cristescu, M.P. (2019). Intriguing behavior when testing the impact of quotation marks usage in Google search results. Quality & Quantity. 53 (5), pp. 2507-2519. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11135-018-0771-0
Global, Regional, and National Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life-Years for 29 Cancer Groups, 1990 to 2017
Fitzmaurice, Christina, Abate, Degu, Abbasi, Naghmeh, Abbastabar, Hedayat, Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdel-Rahman, Omar, Abdelalim, Ahmed, Abdoli, Amir, Abdollahpour, Ibrahim, Abdulle, Abdishakur SM, Abebe, Nebiyu Dereje, Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Abu-Raddad, Laith Jamal, Abualhasan, Ahmed, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Advani, Shailesh M, Afarideh, Mohsen, Afshari, Mahdi, Aghaali, Mohammad, Agius, Dominic, Agrawal, Sutapa, Ahmadi, Ayat, Ahmadian, Elham, Ahmadpour, Ehsan, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Akbari, Mohammad Esmaeil, Akinyemiju, Tomi, Al-Aly, Ziyad, AlAbdulKader, Assim M, Alahdab, Fares, Alam, Tahiya, Alamene, Genet Melak, Alemnew, Birhan Tamene T, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alinia, Cyrus, Alipour, Vahid, Aljunid, Syed Mohamed, Bakeshei, Fatemeh Allah, Almadi, Majid Abdulrahman Hamad, Almasi-Hashiani, Amir, Alsharif, Ubai, Alsowaidi, Shirina, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amini, Erfan, Amini, Saeed, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Anbari, Zohreh, Anber, Nahla Hamed, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Anjomshoa, Mina, Ansari, 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