Modelling and measuring the irrational behaviour of agents in financial markets: Discovering the psychological soliton

Journal article


Dhesi, G and Ausloos, M (2016). Modelling and measuring the irrational behaviour of agents in financial markets: Discovering the psychological soliton. Chaos, Solitons and Fractals. 88 (July), pp. 119-125. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2015.12.015
AuthorsDhesi, G and Ausloos, M
Abstract

© 2015 Elsevier Ltd.Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We specifically discuss the role of financial news or economic information positive or negative feedback of such irrational (or contrarian) agents upon the price evolution. We observe a kink-like effect reminiscent of soliton behaviour, suggesting how analysts' forecasts errors induce stock prices to adjust accordingly, thereby proposing a measure of the irrational force in a market.

Keywordsq-fin.TR; q-fin.TR; q-fin.MF; 01 Mathematical Sciences; 09 Engineering; 08 Information And Computing Sciences; Mathematical Physics
Year2016
JournalChaos, Solitons and Fractals
Journal citation88 (July), pp. 119-125
PublisherElsevier
ISSN0960-0779
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2015.12.015
Web address (URL)https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0960077915004336?via%3Dihub
Publication dates
Print23 Jan 2016
Publication process dates
Deposited08 Mar 2017
Accepted16 Dec 2015
Accepted author manuscript
License
File Access Level
Open
Permalink -

https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/87533

Download files


Accepted author manuscript
CSFsubmitrev2final.pdf
License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0
File access level: Open

  • 46
    total views
  • 90
    total downloads
  • 1
    views this month
  • 4
    downloads this month

Export as

Related outputs

Multiscale interplay of higher-order moments between the carbon and energy markets during Phase III of the EU ETS
Dai, X., Xiao, L., Wang, Q. and Dhesi, G. (2021). Multiscale interplay of higher-order moments between the carbon and energy markets during Phase III of the EU ETS. Energy Policy. 156, p. 112428. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112428
Influence of blockchain adoption on technology transfer, performance and supply chain integration, exibility and responsiveness. A case study from IT&C medium size enterprises
Cerqueti, R., Ceptureanu, S., Alexandru, A., Popescu, D., Dhesi, G. and Ceptureanu, E. (2021). Influence of blockchain adoption on technology transfer, performance and supply chain integration, exibility and responsiveness. A case study from IT&C medium size enterprises. Studies in Informatics and Control.
Does Death Anxiety Inhibit Product Innovation?An Exploratory Study In Small Manufacturing Companies
Cerqueti, R., Ceptureanu, S.I., Ceptureanu, E.G., Dhesi, G. and Luchian, I. (2021). Does Death Anxiety Inhibit Product Innovation?An Exploratory Study In Small Manufacturing Companies. Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research. 55 (1/2021), pp. 135-147. https://doi.org/10.24818/18423264/55.1.21.09
Benford's laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity
Ausloos, M, Ficcadenti, V, Dhesi, G and Shakeel, M (2021). Benford's laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 574, pp. 125969-125969. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.125969
Stock Index Futures Trading Impact on Spot Price Volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model
Ausloos, M, Zhang, Y and Dhesi, G (2020). Stock Index Futures Trading Impact on Spot Price Volatility. The CSI 300 studied with a TGARCH model. Expert Systems with Applications. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2020.113688
Words ranking and Hirsch index for identifying the core of the hapaxes in political texts
Ficcadenti, V., Cerqueti, R., Ausloos, M. and Dhesi, G. (2020). Words ranking and Hirsch index for identifying the core of the hapaxes in political texts. Journal of Informetrics. 14 (3), pp. 101054-101054. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.joi.2020.101054
Entropic Analysis of Votes Expressed in Italian Elections between 1948 and 2018
Marmani, S., Ficcadenti, V., Kaur, P. and Dhesi, G. (2020). Entropic Analysis of Votes Expressed in Italian Elections between 1948 and 2018. Entropy. 22 (5), pp. 523-523. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22050523
Analysis of Social Media Impact on Opportunity Recognition. A Social Networks and Entrepreneurial Alertness Mixed Approach
Ceptureanu, S., Ceptureanu, E., Cristescu, M. and Dhesi, G. (2020). Analysis of Social Media Impact on Opportunity Recognition. A Social Networks and Entrepreneurial Alertness Mixed Approach. Entropy: international and interdisciplinary journal of entropy and information studies. 22 (3). https://doi.org/10.3390/e22030343
Liquidity transmission and the subprime mortgage crisis: a multivariate GARCH approach
Xiao, L., Dhesi, G., Ceptureanu, E.G., Lin, K., Herteliu, C., Syed, B. and Ceptureanu, S.I. (2020). Liquidity transmission and the subprime mortgage crisis: a multivariate GARCH approach. Soft Computing. 10. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-020-04772-4
Money's Importance from the religious perspective
Dhesi, G., Herteliu, C., Jianu, I., Jianu, J., Bobb, V.C., Ceptureanu, S.I., Ceptureanu, E.G. and Ausloos, M. (2019). Money's Importance from the religious perspective. Annals of Operations Research. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03488-5
Duration gap analysis revisited method in order to improve risk management: the case of Chinese commercial bank interest rate risks after interest rate liberalization
Dhesi, G., Ausloos, M., Ma, Q., Kaur, P. and Syed, B. (2019). Duration gap analysis revisited method in order to improve risk management: the case of Chinese commercial bank interest rate risks after interest rate liberalization. Soft Computing. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00500-019-04376-7
Modelling and forecasting the kurtosis and returns distributions of financial markets: irrational fractional Brownian motion model approach
Dhesi, G., Shakeel, B. and Ausloos, M. (2019). Modelling and forecasting the kurtosis and returns distributions of financial markets: irrational fractional Brownian motion model approach. Annals of Operations Research. pp. 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10479-019-03305-z
Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study
Dhesi, G, Ausloos, M, Kaur, P and Eskandary, A (2019). Evidence for Gross Domestic Product growth time delay dependence over Foreign Direct Investment. A time-lag dependent correlation study. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 527. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2019.121181
Non stationarity of high order return distribution moments and their Irrational fractional Brownian Motion modelling
Dhesi, G (2018). Non stationarity of high order return distribution moments and their Irrational fractional Brownian Motion modelling. EURO 2018. Valencia 08 - 11 Jul 2018
Comparative Causality Analyses between Hydrological Natural Inflow and Climate Variables in Brazil
Huang, X, Macaira, P, Hassani, H, Oliviera, F and Dhesi, G (2018). Comparative Causality Analyses between Hydrological Natural Inflow and Climate Variables in Brazil. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications. 516, pp. 480-495. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2018.09.079
Decomposition of the Inequality of Income distribution by income types- Application for Romania
Andrei, T, Oancea, B, Richmond, P, Dhesi, G and Herteliu, C. (2017). Decomposition of the Inequality of Income distribution by income types- Application for Romania. Entropy. 19 (9), p. 430. https://doi.org/10.3390/e19090430
Modified Brownian Motion Approach to Modelling Returns Distribution
Dhesi, G, Shakeel, MB and Xiao, L (2016). Modified Brownian Motion Approach to Modelling Returns Distribution. Wilmott. 82, pp. 74-77. https://doi.org/10.1002/wilm.10494
Finite size effects in the averaged eigenvalue density of Wigner random-sign real symmetric matrices
Dhesi, G and Ausloos, M (2016). Finite size effects in the averaged eigenvalue density of Wigner random-sign real symmetric matrices. Physical Review E - Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics. 93 (6). https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.93.062115