Integrated Modelling System with Uncertainty Analysis for Reservoir Water Quality Management in a Reclamation River Basin

Journal article


Ham, JH and Hong, T (2016). Integrated Modelling System with Uncertainty Analysis for Reservoir Water Quality Management in a Reclamation River Basin. Irrigation and Drainage. 65, pp. 246-257.
AuthorsHam, JH and Hong, T
Abstract

A developed integrated modelling system with the uncertainty analysis (Monte Carlo simulation and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) was used to evaluate the effect of uncertainty sources on long-term water quality and develop river basin management measures to meet the specified water quality criteria based on the predicted probability of occurrence in the reclamation river basin. The results of deterministic integrated modelling system without the uncertainty analysis showed that the Hwaong Reservoir water quality for total phosphorus(T-P) (0.094 mg L-1) in 2022 would meet the reservoir water quality standard (0.1 mg L-1). However, the water quality prediction for theHwaong Reservoir in 2022 using the integrated modelling system with the uncertainty analysis showed that only 28% would meet the T-P water quality standard, indicating that to meet the water quality standard with a 90% level of confidence, further river basin management measures should be applied in addition to the construction of planned wastewater treatment plants and treatment wetlands. The developed integrated modelling system with the uncertainty analysis was demonstrated to be advantageous because it can allow modellers to make useful decisions about whether a river basin management plan can meet specified water quality criteria based on the probability of occurrence.

Keywordsuncertainty analysis;integrated modelling system;river basin management measure; treatment wetland; Monte Carlo simulation; GLUE.; 0905 Civil Engineering; Agronomy & Agriculture
Year2016
JournalIrrigation and Drainage
Journal citation65, pp. 246-257
PublisherJohn Wiley & Sons Inc.
ISSN1531-0353
Digital Object Identifier (DOI)doi:10.1002/ird.2069
Publication dates
Print07 Sep 2016
Publication process dates
Deposited26 Oct 2017
Accepted28 Apr 2016
Accepted author manuscript
License
CC BY 4.0
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https://openresearch.lsbu.ac.uk/item/8725y

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